Today, the Czech Republic faces a decisive parliamentary election. After four years in power, the centre-right coalition led by Petr Fiala appears to be losing its footing, while the opposition movement ANO, led by former prime minister Andrej Babiš, is enjoying a commanding lead in the polls. Much is at stake: will the current pro-Western course continue, or will Czech politics take a rightward turn – joining the emerging Central European Orbán–Fico axis? Analysis by Róbert Gönczi.
European Stakes and Electoral Prospects
The vote, scheduled for 3–4 October 2025, is being watched across Europe with keen attention. Andrej Babiš – often dubbed the “Czech Trump” – could return to power, having already served as prime minister between 2017 and 2021. His movement, ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens), currently polls around 30%, roughly 10 percentage points ahead of Fiala’s three-party SPOLU coalition. The liberal Mayors and Independents (STAN) and the Pirate Party hover around 10% each. In total, six political forces are expected to have a realistic chance of entering the Prague parliament.
In Brussels, there are fears that post-election, the Czech Republic might – like Hungary and Slovakia – become an EU-critical voice on issues such as migration, support for Ukraine, or climate policy. British analyst Michael Ashcroft warns that a Babiš victory would “fit into a worrying trend” and could indirectly weaken the unity of the Western front against Russia.
Yet, several experts argue that a new “Orbán scenario” is far from inevitable. Although Babiš has indeed tightened his ties with right-wing leaders – leaving the European liberal group to join Orbán’s Patriotic Party family – the Czech opposition leader remains above all a pragmatic businessman. “These ominous predictions are often more campaign rhetoric than reality,” notes political scientist Vít Hloušek, pointing out that ANO has no intention of pulling the Czech Republic out of either the EU or NATO. According to him, “Babiš barks more than he bites”: at home he rails against Brussels and promises change, but in office he would likely be less confrontational than Orbán or Fico and more cooperative within the EU.
Babiš’s Promises vs. Disillusioned Governance
Babiš’s campaign message is simple: “a better life for the people.” ANO has presented a cost-of-living-focused programme, pledging to curb energy prices, cut taxes, and even lower the retirement age. Such promises resonate with many Czechs still feeling the pinch of high inflation and soaring household costs.
However, Babiš has long been dogged by corruption and conflict-of-interest allegations – in 2019, a quarter of a million protesters demanded his resignation – though his supporters dismiss these as politically motivated attacks.
The governing side, by contrast, warns that ANO’s pledges are reckless and unfunded. Petr Fiala insists that Babiš’s giveaways would plunge the country into a debt spiral. His own three-party coalition – comprising the centre-right ODS, the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) and the liberal TOP 09 – has so far focused on fiscal consolidation, implementing harsh austerity measures to cut the deficit while strengthening national defence.
Yet much of the electorate remains unimpressed. Real wages have only just begun to rise again this year, while food prices in the Czech Republic are roughly 20% higher than in Poland. Barely 15% of citizens say they are satisfied with the political situation. Many have grown disillusioned with what they see as an elitist “progressive” government that prioritises abstract issues over everyday concerns. The coalition itself has been plagued by internal tensions – scandals in STAN, unpopular tax proposals from the Pirates – and has partially fractured.
In response, Fiala’s campaign has turned defensive, warning that “democracy and Western orientation” are at risk if Babiš returns to power alongside extremists. He has ruled out any coalition with ANO, declaring that “you cannot support someone who has become Orbán’s ally in the EU.” He even went so far as to label Babiš “Orbán’s puppet,” recalling that the Social Democrats were politically crushed after previously entering coalition with ANO.
Coalition Arithmetic: Which Way Forward?
Since Babiš’s ANO is widely expected to win by a large margin, the real question is how he will form a government. No single party is likely to secure a majority, meaning coalition bargaining will be unavoidable. Babiš faces two options: either find moderate partners from the centre, or rely on parties at the political fringes. The former will be difficult, as SPOLU, STAN, and the Pirates have all ruled out cooperating with ANO. Thus, the smaller opposition parties could hold the balance of power.
Two protest movements are poised to enter parliament: the right-wing radical Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), polling around 10–12%, which advocates a referendum on EU membership; and the Stačilo! (“Enough!”) bloc, a patriotic left-wing alliance with communist and social-democratic roots, polling around 7–8%, and known for its sceptical stance towards both Brussels and NATO. Additionally, the Motorists for Themselves (Motoristé sobě) movement – hostile to green policies – is hovering near the electoral threshold.
An ANO–SPD coalition would represent a sharp anti-EU turn, but such a scenario appears unlikely: both Babiš and President Petr Pavel have stated clearly that there is no room for anti-EU or anti-NATO policy. A more probable outcome is a minority ANO government, supported externally by the SPD and/or Stačilo!. This arrangement would allow Babiš to maintain a moderate image, avoiding an open alliance with extremists while relying on their votes on selected issues. In return, he might make some concessions – a tougher tone towards Brussels, or more generous spending – in exchange for a relatively stable administration.
Europe Watches Prague
The Czech election will influence not only Prague but the future direction of Europe itself. Voters’ decisions will reveal which face of Andrej Babiš will prevail: the Brussels-bashing populist or the cautious statesman balancing between East and West.
It may mark the start of a new Central European power alignment, or perhaps Czechia’s rightward shift will prove more a matter of style than of substance – with the country remaining firmly anchored in the West, but bringing a new tone to the Central European chorus.