How is the Russo-Ukrainian war viewed from Beijing, Delhi, or Cape Town? What is happening on the other side of the world in a changing global political landscape? We invite you to a foreign affairs journey around the world!
Hungarian foreign policy experts discussed the perception of the war outside the Western world at the National University of Public Service in Budapest.
Moscow is good for distraction
According to Gergely Salát, Ph.D., a senior researcher specializing in the Far East, most of Northeast Asia fully supports Washington’s position on Russia and even imposed some sanctions on Moscow. On the other hand, the countries of Southeast Asia are neutral and trying to take advantage of the geopolitical situation. The cheap Russian oil is charming for India too, and they are not afraid to use this opportunity for their own goals. North Korea openly supports Russia, while China is currently a big question mark as it became clear to Beijing around 2010 that China is the number one rival of the United States. Washington wants to stop Beijing’s rise and organize a global anti-China coalition. „The US alliance system is set, and China perceives that it is being forced into a Cold War-like situation,” Salát said, highlighting that Beijing is not strong enough for a Cold War. However, China is powerful enough to pick up the gauntlet and can take counteractions to mitigate the US pressure against the country.
„For China, Ukraine is not the center of the world,” concludes Salát, adding that the Far East great power is looking for the best way for itself to get out of this global conflict. Beijing is partially moving closer to Russia, as the existing disputes between them have been swept under the carpet, and the Chinese politicians and press have fully adopted the Russian narrative in their external communication: the West started this war, and Russia is the victim. In diplomacy, Beijing is abstaining; it wants to appear as a well-intentioned, neutral, outsider player who wants peace.
Nonetheless, economically Beijing strongly backs Moscow: Russia’s trade with China dropped for a while, but in 2022 exports in both directions hit all records. „China serves as a pillow for the Russian economy; it can fall into a soft spot,” the expert explained, pointing out that if Russia collapses, everyone will be looking at China, so Moscow is a good distraction. Salát concluded by pointing out the situation’s complexity: „We are used to dividing the world into good and evil, and of course, in this case, the Western world is good from our perspective. But, for instance, for India, Indonesia, and Africa, the situation is different: they do not like either side.
Iran’s military technology sometimes outclasses its Russian counterpart
Péter Wagner, Ph.D., a senior research fellow at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, analyzed the Middle East’s viewpoints. He believes there are no general trends in the region because it is evident that the Gulf states and Israel are US-friendly countries, while Iran and Syria are on Russia’s side. Iraq and Turkey try to play a smart shuttlecock policy; nonetheless, Turkey is still a NATO member, with a US military base on its territory. Despite this mixed picture, the Middle East is trying to distance itself from the judgment of the war and Russia. „Dubai could be the biggest beneficiary of the capital markets’ realignment because all trade passes through the Middle East’s London,” said Wagner, adding that the Russians could relocate some of their assets to Dubai. „Everybody from Afghan warlords to Russian oligarchs keeps their money in Dubai,” he concluded.
It is also worth mentioning that Syria still provides a small amount of support to Russia, but the Wagner Group has already left Syria. Furthermore, Iran is one of the beneficiaries of the war, as Tehran exports military technology to Russia, and sometimes, Iranian developments even exceed Russian standards. Wagner added that „each country in the Middle East is pursuing its foreign policy in line with its own goals.” Hence, the region generally has a diverse, careful stance on the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Africa has become a global playing field
According to István Taróssy, Ph.D., a researcher and foreign affairs expert specializing in Africa, Africa has been neglected for some time due to the former Soviet context. As known, Africa was one of Moscow’s most important spheres of influence in Soviet times, but it was downgraded after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In 2006, Vladimir Putin went on an Africa tour, marking the beginning of Russia’s new Africa policy. At the same time, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) started to bring a lot of innovation to the continent, and since 2008 India has also started to build up its presence. After a decade, in 2019, a summit was held in Sochi between African and Russian leaders, and African nations ordered a lot of arms from the Russian defense industry. Russians supply a third of sub-Saharan Africa’s weapons, while China delivers 20 percent. China is Africa’s number one trading partner; only the EU countries’ combined economic role is stronger. Beijing is investing $40 billion in Africa, but the US is also closely watching the developments: there are forums and negotiations between Washington and the African countries, and a US-Africa summit was held in December 2022. Taróssy believes that „Africa is becoming more attractive to the great powers,” and he highlighted the initiative that the African Union could become the 21st member of G20.
Interestingly, more than half of African countries abstain from UN votes condemning Russia: In July 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Africa, thanking the countries for their support in the UN. In August 2022, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the same trip, signaling that Africa also becomes more important for the US. The situation is complicated by the current food crisis and the vast importance of Ukrainian and Russian grain; some African countries are totally dependent due to growing food insecurity.
„Africa is a beautiful continent, but its role should not be exaggerated,” concluded Taróssy. The expert said that Africa is just a training ground for all great powers, as still Asia and Latin America are the leaders in terms of economic investment. From the African side’s perspective, seeing the rise of the continent’s geopolitical role and the great powers’ competition is exciting. As developments are brought, African countries may benefit from the current situation if the leaders are not corrupt and can take the opportunities in line with a pragmatic foreign policy.
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